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Article by Tyler Durden in Zero Hedge
US equity futures are limit up this morning after an impressive rally from ugly depths during Asian trading overnight.
So, what, or who, is responsible for this massive comeback?
Admittedly – after the 5th worst daily drop in history of the S&P 500 – one might have expected a bounce…
But, as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott details below, there was an armada of stimulus plans suggested overnight to rescue the world (markets)…
As we have continued repeating, “The worse it gets, the larger the ultimate policy response” – and away we go, highlighted by German’s shock “fiscal” capitulation announcements happening real-time:
German FinMin Scholz unleashes the REAL bazooka today though, in a shocking FISCAL “whatever it takes” moment: *SCHOLZ SAYS POSSIBLE GERMANY WILL NEED TO TAKE ON ADDED DEBT*; GERMANY WILL HAVE NO LIMIT ON CREDIT PROGRAM FOR COMPANIES; SCHOLZ SAYS GERMANY WILL SPEND BILLIONS TO CUSHION ECONOMY; *GERMANY PLANS TO SET UP SAFETY NET FOR VIRUS-HIT COMPANIES; ALTMAIER: RESOURCES FOR GERMANY’S STATE BANK TO RISE TO 500BN
Treas Sec Mnuchin and House Dems reached an agreement last night to move forward with legislation that would shore up the US public health response to COVID-19, while also blunting some of the economic impact (h/t Rob Dent)
Yesterday’s Fed liquidity actions with the expansion of repo ops (beginning immed) and transition to “outright” QE (as previous “bill only” purchases expanded out across a range of maturities—thus, they are now explicitly buying Duration across nominal coupons, TIPS, FRNs and Bills) were introduced in an attempt to offset the obviously liquidity strains in the “frozen” Rates space, as evidenced by the moves in basis / off-the-runs this week
Further, given the deterioration of market conditions within Rates, I expect them to announce next week that they will effectively double the current monthly $notional purchases in an effort to soak-up some of this liquidity strain as OTR’s remain largely ‘bid-less’ and a large problem for both dealers and the leverage RV community alike
Lew’s new house-view is that the Fed will cut 100bps next wk, plus the aforementioned additional $50B of purchases on top of the current $60B plus the $20B from the MBS runoff reinvestments means a potential aggregate purchase of $130B / month from the Fed
To read this article in its entirety with charts in Zero Hedge, click here.
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